Many of the best dividend paying stocks featured in news articles every day, but when is the right time to buy them? A recently published article, “5 Dividend Stocks That Are Worth A Look”, written by Jamie Smith, is a good example of one of these articles. The issue I have with many articles like this one is that all the author does is look at a few company fundamentals, but stops short of determining whether or not the dividend paying stocks being written about represent a good value to buy right now.
Here is an excerpt from the article, where you can see a little bit of what the author is looking for in dividend paying stocks:
This company has a good balance sheet and is continuing to pay down debt. In the fuel industry, the dividend is safe and is likely to continue the trend of increasing year over year. In the current environment, crude oil prices and gas prices are more …
As you can see, the article has a quick review of company fundamentals, a mention of the macro environment, and on to the next stock. This is a formula followed by most financial writers, and while they are correct to examine these factors, they need to take the next step, and show their readers when these stocks represent a good historical value, and some of the reasoning around why they are recommending their latest list of dividend paying stocks at whatever price they are quoting.
An easy first level screen for dividend paying stocks is to look at their current dividend yield vs. their historic dividend yield levels. Dividend yields track inversely with stock prices – given the same dividend payout per share, when stock prices are high, dividend yields are low, and when stock prices are low, dividend yields are high. It has been shown that many dividend stock yields tend to move between high and low levels over time, even when companies are raising their dividends. So all things being the same, it is better to buy high quality dividend paying stocks when the dividend yield is high, and the price relative to the dividend payout is low.
Let’s look at the five stocks Jamie Smith highlights in the above article, and see if any of them pass this very simple dividend stock screen. First up is Chevron (CVX). As you can see in the first dividend chart for Chevron, the stock is in the sell zone right now based on it’s dividend yield.

Just for reference the upper band represents 3% annualized dividend yield for Chevron, while the bottom band is at 4.9% dividend yield. As you can see, as the Chevron dividend payout has increased over time, the upper and lower dividend yield bands adjust to the new payout level.
Sometimes a better way to visualize this dividend yield history is to just plot the dividend yield between constant upper and lower bands as shown in this stock dividend yield chart for Chevron:

In this picture you can see only Chevron’s dividend yield plotted, without the price of the stock shown. It is easy to see here that Chevron’s yield is currently too low to consider buying the stock. Based only on this valuation, the right price to buy this stock with the current dividend payout is not the low 100’s as suggested by the author, but actually in the mid-60’s.
The second stock in the article is Eaton (ETN). Here is the dividend yield chart for Eaton Corporation with the buy band set to 3.5% dividend yield, and the sell band targeting 2% dividend yield.

Eaton is actually close to being a buy right now, my target for an initial buy would be around $43.50 at current dividend levels.
Next is General Dynamics (GD). The sell area is 1.5% dividend yield, and the buy level is when General Dynamics dividend yield hits 3.2%.

This is another stock that is close to a level that could be a good value. Right now the price I would use for an initial buy for General Dynamics is around $63.75, about $5 per share lower than where it closed on Friday.
Fourth in the list from the article is Microsoft (MSFT). A couple of things stand out in the dividend yield chart for Microsoft:

First, Microsoft has been trading in a range since 2005, and second, the Microsoft dividend yield has caught up to the stock price, making it a good buy today.
The last stock from the article is Wal-Mart (WMT). While the share prices for Wal-mart have been flat for over a decade, you can see that the dividend yield has been moving up as they regularly increase the dividend payout:

At current prices, Wal-mart is actually yielding 2.7%, well above the 2% buy level I show in this chart. Using this valuation metric for dividend paying stocks, Wal-mart is a buy at today’s prices.
While there are many good ways to value dividend paying stocks, sometimes using a simple screen like dividend yield vs. historic dividend levels is a good place to start filtering out stocks. Remember this as you read financial articles, so you do not make the expensive mistake of buying a stock that is priced too high. What tools or screens do you use to find dividend paying stocks to buy?























